For emerging economies, GDP has got different meanings. The richer a country becomes, the lower GDP tends to be. BRICS have become an eminent economic force and emerging economies have gained a big share of global trade and production.
China and India also represent the engines of the respective regions, as South and East Asia are experiencing a widespread and large development.
China’s weight is so massive that it influences its commercial partners around the world. In 2014 an IMF’s research estimated that a slowdown in China is associated with slower growth in the LAC region. A 0.6 percentage point reduction in GDP over an horizon of two years in response to a 1 percentage point reduction in China’s growth.
Recent facts make believe that the real growth of China is lower than the announce 7%, that could be a little inflated. In reality Chinese GDP is closer to 5%, with falling exports and internal demand, that despite the incentives, doesn’t grow. Numbers that are quite scaring the global economy, if we think that euro is on the edge while America still doesn’t stand on its own feet.
China has got the financial power to close a large part of that gap, but it seems to follow the US financial example and mistakes. And the decision of keeping on devaluing the yuan it’s not bringing the expected results. It’s quite the contrary, and the yuan is losing ground and capitals.
Forgetting for a moment the possibility of another coming crisis, many regions are still recovering from recession, economies that would had restart only from 2017. An heterogeneous frame is the one in Middle East. Violent conflicts, lacks in infrastructure an oil prices fluctuations affect some countries while oil-rich countries and monarchies experience growth and macroeconomic stability. But the slowing in international oil demand (a great part from China), the high production registered in the US against the producer from the emerging economies create a new variable.
Which position occupy new emerging economies in this process? There are emerging markets where improved governance provides value – as the case of Colombia. O’Neill and the Goldman team suggest that these economies would hit their estimated long-term growth targets only if political leaders are willing and able to <<maintain policies and develop institutions that are supportive of growth>>. Sub-Saharan Africa is another region inspiring great promises and is now home to the world’s fastest-growing middle class.
The economic and financial climbing of the BRICS make think that this experience could be repeated in the future by other countries. Even if the main part is played by the BRICS, new emerging economies are also producer of growth. The NDB project, followed by the AIIB foundation should have guided and strengthen growth between all the developing and emerging countries.
The IMF announced to review the composition of special drawing rights basket (SDRs) later this year, because in 2015, the recalibration of the world economy toward the BRICS and China is still not reflected in the global financial architecture.
In twenty years, China should have (or should have had) the biggest economy in the world in terms of GDP and the developing East of the world get the economic primacy already from 2030. The financial catastrophe that is taking place in Shangai could put all back on the table.
But without the Chinese pillar, it’s the whole economy to be uncertain, not only the poorest ones.